The transition into the next generation has officially started...

[satoori]

As someone who have always supported the theory of 4th gen starting after 2020 (specifically 2022) I'm starting feel the transition more and more o.o

 

• Many early 3rd gen groups have disband or peaked or starting to have more issues with members (BtoB, AOA, EXID, EXO, Got7, Ikon, CLC...)
• Late 3rd gen groups (or 3.5 gen) have gradually replaced  the seniors as we near the end of the gen. (NCT, ITZY, Ateez, Gidle, Staykids, Loona,TxT, WJSN... ) 
• Each year a we get closer to the new gen, rookies are getting more and more attention from the Kpop community (Aespa, Weeekly, Enhypen, Cravity, StayC, Treasure, ...)
• Including upcoming groups expected to debut 2021: BHNGG (SouMu X BH), TRI.BE (Shindong Tiger), Purple Kiss (Mamamoo sisters), YGNGG(?), ILAND S2, Mystic Story Girls (SM subsidiary). I suspect 2022 will be even more wild...
• Popular public friendly 3rd gen girl groups are transitioning and/or maturing: (Twice, RV, Gfriend,...)
• Majoor boy groups have started to enlist. If not for the extension BTS would have too in 2021.
• Big 3 - Big 4 shift. New player (Bighit)
• Marketing and management of groups have changed:
  -The U.S is now a major playing field with Japan.
  -China is getting less attention each year.
  -Both male and female groups are relying more on the fanbase instead of caring about the public.
  -Communication with fan community - global fancafes is one of the new trends (Weverse, Lysn, Universe, ....)
• Concert experience - Online streaming of some events is most likely here to stay, the use of AI and holograms, etc.
• Super groups and survival shows which defined the later part of the 3rd gen (or 3.5 gen) have receive more backlash from the public and not as popular with them (tho still doing well online with fandoms - which fits perfectly with the shift to relying more on fandoms)
• 2nd gen is basically almost non-existent.

 

fyi - The Theory:  Earliest form of Kpop started in 1992 with Seo Taiji and Boys, so ever decade or so is a new gen.

[satoori]

[hungerbee27]

Flop!

Edited January 8, 2021 by hungerbee27

[satoori]

9 minutes ago, hungerbee27 said:

Flop!

[pinkpanda_spirit]

Idk who clowned you because everything you said is true

[satoori]

1 hour ago, pinkpanda_spirit said:

Idk who clowned you because everything you said is true

haha it's ok!

thanks for the support tho uwu

[Green Tea Is Green]

Can't wait for the cute gg debuts this/next year

[hynapia]

To me 4th gen groups started to debut in 2018 but I agree we're only starting to see the transition now just like 3rd gen groups started to debut in 2012-13 but the shift didn't start until 2015ish.

We're indeed seeing how most early 3rd gen groups are going in hiatus or disbanding and how even some of the top 3rd gen groups are starting to slow down while 4th gen groups, especially girl groups like G-idle, Izone, Loona, ITZY, Aespa, StayC etc are starting to gain a lot of traction and even surpassing some established 3rd gen groups in areas like digitals, physicals or youtube views. For bgs BTS is still a wall but rising bgs like Stray Kids, ATEEZ, TxT, Cravity, Treasure, Enhypen are rising fast too, especially in physical sales and global fandom.

This year is gonna be interesting because there's gonna be a lot of anticipated debuts indeed, like BH x Soumu gg, YG ngg, Mystic girls, Shinsadong Tiger gg, I-land female version, JYP x P Nation bg(s), SM nbg, etc. By 2022 the 4th gen is probably gonna replace most of the 3rd gen already except the "walls" like BTS and BP.

[satoori]

4 hours ago, hynapia said:

To me 4th gen groups started to debut in 2018 but I agree we're only starting to see the transition now just like 3rd gen groups started to debut in 2012-13 but the shift didn't start until 2015ish.

We're indeed seeing how most early 3rd gen groups are going in hiatus or disbanding and how even some of the top 3rd gen groups are starting to slow down while 4th gen groups, especially girl groups like G-idle, Izone, Loona, ITZY, Aespa, StayC etc are starting to gain a lot of traction and even surpassing some established 3rd gen groups in areas like digitals, physicals or youtube views. For bgs BTS is still a wall but rising bgs like Stray Kids, ATEEZ, TxT, Cravity, Treasure, Enhypen are rising fast too, especially in physical sales and global fandom.

This year is gonna be interesting because there's gonna be a lot of anticipated debuts indeed, like BH x Soumu gg, YG ngg, Mystic girls, Shinsadong Tiger gg, I-land female version, JYP x P Nation bg(s), SM nbg, etc. By 2022 the 4th gen is probably gonna replace most of the 3rd gen already except the "walls" like BTS and BP.

Exo sort of started the shift in 2013 with Growl. But yea we didn't see major shifts till probably around 2016-2017 - many 2nd gen groups begin to have problems. 

I agree, looking forward to this year! No matter what theory people support this year is a big one.

 

OT: Curious question; When do 4th gen end for you? How would you fill in the below?

1992 - (1st gen)

- 2011 (2nd gen)

2012 - 2017 (3rd gen)

2018 - 202? (4th gen)

 

for me, i like keeping things simple^^

1992 - 2001 (1st gen)

2002 - 2011 (2nd gen)

2012 - 2021 (3rd gen)

2022 - (4th gen)

Edited January 8, 2021 by satoori

[satoori]

8 hours ago, Green Tea Is Green said:

Can't wait for the cute gg debuts this/next year

[hynapia]

2 hours ago, satoori said:

Exo sort of started the shift in 2013 with Growl. But yea we didn't see major shifts till probably around 2016-2017 - many 2nd gen groups begin to have problems. 

I agree, looking forward to this year! No matter what theory people support this year is a big one.

 

OT: Curious question; When do 4th gen end for you? How would you fill in the below?

1992 - (1st gen)

- 2011 (2nd gen)

2012 - 2017 (3rd gen)

2018 - 202? (4th gen)

 

for me, i like keeping things simple^^

1992 - 2001 (1st gen)

2002 - 2011 (2nd gen)

2012 - 2021 (3rd gen)

2022 - (4th gen)

EXO was the first 3rd gen group that had mainstream success in 2013 but yeah, the shift wasn't prominent until 2015-16 when Twice, RV, Mamamoo, Blackpink, BTS, Seventeen, produce groups etc finally overpowered all or most 2nd gen groups. In 2013-14 many 2nd gen groups like SNSD, SuJu, SHINee, Big Bang, 2NE1, Sistar, etc were still fairly active and dominating, same than right now 3rd gen groups are still dominating even though we've starting so see some signs of shifting.

And to me I consider 2018 as the start of the 4th gen because it's when we started to see a major change in concepts/trends and it's also since 2018 when many big companies have debuted new groups (Stray Kids, G-idle, TxT, ITZY, Treasure, Enhypen, Aespa). I personally don't consider Stray Kids, TxT, ITZY or Aespa to be in the same generation than GOT7, Twice, BTS, EXO, NCT etc but I guess that depends on each one's pov. When I start seeing major changes in concepts/sounds again and the major companies debut new groups I guess I'll consider it to be the end of 4th gen, probably by 2024/25? But counting it by decades it's kinda accurate too, but in that case the groups debuted since 2017/18 would be 3.5 gen because they don't feel the same as the groups debuted in 2012-2016 imo.

Personally I've always counted it like:

1st gen: 1992-2003

2nd gen: 2004-2011 (2004 is when DBSK debuted and then SuJu, Big Bang, SNSD etc followed).

3rd gen: 2012-2017

4th gen: 2018-present

Edited January 8, 2021 by hynapia

[satoori]

11 hours ago, hynapia said:

EXO was the first 3rd gen group that had mainstream success in 2013 but yeah, the shift wasn't prominent until 2015-16 when Twice, RV, Mamamoo, Blackpink, BTS, Seventeen, produce groups etc finally overpowered all or most 2nd gen groups. In 2013-14 many 2nd gen groups like SNSD, SuJu, SHINee, Big Bang, 2NE1, Sistar, etc were still fairly active and dominating, same than right now 3rd gen groups are still dominating even though we've starting so see some signs of shifting.

And to me I consider 2018 as the start of the 4th gen because it's when we started to see a major change in concepts/trends and it's also since 2018 when many big companies have debuted new groups (Stray Kids, G-idle, TxT, ITZY, Treasure, Enhypen, Aespa). I personally don't consider Stray Kids, TxT, ITZY or Aespa to be in the same generation than GOT7, Twice, BTS, EXO, NCT etc but I guess that depends on each one's pov. When I start seeing major changes in concepts/sounds again and the major companies debut new groups I guess I'll consider it to be the end of 4th gen, probably by 2024/25? But counting it by decades it's kinda accurate too, but in that case the groups debuted since 2017/18 would be 3.5 gen because they don't feel the same as the groups debuted in 2012-2016 imo.

Personally I've always counted it like:

1st gen: 1992-2003

2nd gen: 2004-2011 (2004 is when DBSK debuted and then SuJu, Big Bang, SNSD etc followed).

3rd gen: 2012-2017

4th gen: 2018-present

Yea pov is different haha. Being someone that experienced 2nd gen, although I was a kid. I see some things differently, I guess. Exactly what you're saying about concept changes and more can be said about 2nd gen too.

The early part of the 2nd generation concepts/style/sound/trends was different then the later part (Big Bang, 2ne1, etc.) Because Edm and Hip Hop became more popular later. Also management and marketing changed too. For starters, things became more global.

What I've notice watching almost two decades of the Kpop industry is usually the first half of the decade (gen) will feel sort of like a hybrid (mix) of previous gen concepts + new (current) gen developing and experimenting. (for example, even looking at how EXO and BTS debuted). Then by middle of the decade the industry will establish it's sound more. Those early groups have to be able to grow and developed or they will be left behind as the generation establish itself. Which we can see clearly happened. Groups like BTS and EXO were able to survive while others struggles later in the decade. Remember BTS completely changed their image and sound half way through the decade (gen).

I consider all of these artist as the very beginning of the 2nd gen. Debuted between (2002-2003)

Black Beat (SM boy group), Sugar (SM girl group), Epik High, Big Mama, Dynamic Duo, M.C. the Max, Stony Kunk (YG reggae duo), Brown Eyed Soul, Luv (SidusHQ girl group), ShiniV (SM subsidiary girl group),...

Other historical moments: H.O.T. disbanded in 2001. End of an era. Plus SM started their journey of looking for their next gen group with a survival show in 2002 which included some trainees who are now members of DBSK and Suju. DBSK made their first appearance as a group in 2003.

Edited January 9, 2021 by satoori
words.

[lilymul]

Im not really familiar with 3rd gen or 4th gen kpop but i think 2nd gen kpop truly started when SNSD ceased their activity as a group and BIGBANG started their military service. 

On 1/9/2021 at 7:39 AM, satoori said:

Yea pov is different haha. Being someone that experienced 2nd gen, although I was a kid. I see some things differently, I guess. Exactly what you're saying about concept changes and more can be said about 2nd gen too.

The early part of the 2nd generation concepts/style/sound/trends was different then the later part (Big Bang, 2ne1, etc.) Because Edm and Hip Hop became more popular later. Also management and marketing changed too. For starters, things became more global.

I still remember people were debating whether the likes of shinee, infinite, fx, nuest, block b, bap and some other bunch of nugus as 3rd gen or still 2.5 gen something. 

I think 4th gen will only start when see bts slowing down their dominance in the industry, tho im not entirely sure how will they end up because the fandom is too massive and they seems to be keep going strong each year. They really remind me of BB in some way especially with how the fandom acting up atm lol

[satoori]

6 minutes ago, lilymul said:

Im not really familiar with 3rd gen or 4th gen kpop but i think 2nd gen kpop truly started when SNSD ceased their activity as a group and BIGBANG started their military service. 

*i'm assuming you meant ended*

Using this criteria then 3rd gen should end when bts starts to enlist - which would of been 2021-2022 if not for the government allowing them an extension.

12 minutes ago, lilymul said:

I still remember people were debating whether the likes of shinee, infinite, fx, nuest, block b, bap and some other bunch of nugus as 3rd gen or still 2.5 gen something. 

shinee (08), infinite (10), fx (09), nuest (12), block b (11), bap (12)

Yea, I remember that too. It's because people are basing it on changing concepts and new trends. By doing this we would be entering a new gen almost every 5 years lol

Everyone is living in the moment and not looking at the bigger picture. e.g. It's not till years later that people realize "oh perhaps shinee and infinite is more 2nd gen". Nowadays I think most people agree 2012 (which also includes debuts like EXO) is the start of 3rd gen. 

19 minutes ago, lilymul said:

I think 4th gen will only start when see bts slowing down their dominance in the industry, tho im not entirely sure how will they end up because the fandom is too massive and they seems to be keep going strong each year. They really remind me of BB in some way especially with how the fandom acting up atm lol

Big fandoms always get a bad rep from people lol it can't be help since even it's just a minority of people being messy and loud it still makes an impact. WelpTT

In all seriousness tho, I feel some people are uncertain about BB future due to the recent scandals with the members. But before everyone I feel assumed BB would remain one of the dominant groups even after enlistment - which is why I personally don't think it's wise to base the end of a generation on when successful groups will slow down. Nowadays companies are getting better at managing and fandoms are getting more powerful resulting in a group's shelf-life is lasting longer.

Back in the days, people were just happy if their favs could make it pass the 5-7 year curse haha. Being active for 10 years was a wishful dream. But the ways things are looking now, more and more groups might reach their 10th year. Groups being active longer is a sign that the Kpop industry is getting stronger and able to rely on itself compared to when it first begin in the 90s. And that's tbh a good thing and lowkey expected. With years of experience and learning from mistakes, it's expected an industry would get better.

 

tl;dr - Basically this is why I like to keep it simple by just counting every ten years or so as a new gen. Otherwise it becomes subjective base on everyone's own experiences and how they view different trends and major moments with in the kpop industry.

[satoori]

and so it begins..knetz starting to include 2018-2020 as 3rd gen too.

https://onehallyu.com/topic/831601-theqoo-the-visual-representatives-of-3rd-gen-kpop/

 

[Drama Drama Drama]

6 hours ago, satoori said:

and so it begins..knetz starting to include 2018-2020 as 3rd gen too.

https://onehallyu.com/topic/831601-theqoo-the-visual-representatives-of-3rd-gen-kpop/

 

Knetz consider from Wanna One and Produce boom and the debuts from 2018-2020 as 3.5 Gen no?

Maybe the 4th gen will start in 2022 with the first success from 2018-21 rookies success.

Some people say the 4th gen will start when SM debut their new bg bc the myth of SM Bgs starting new generation (TVXQ started 2nd gen and EXO started 3rd gen).

[satoori]

6 hours ago, Drama Drama Drama said:

Knetz consider from Wanna One and Produce boom and the debuts from 2018-2020 as 3.5 Gen no?

Maybe the 4th gen will start in 2022 with the first success from 2018-21 rookies success.

Some people say the 4th gen will start when SM debut their new bg bc the myth of SM Bgs starting new generation (TVXQ started 2nd gen and EXO started 3rd gen).

3.5 is technically still with in the span of 3rd gen. (3 - 4)

There isn't any set rule or requirements that say SM has to be the ones to lead each next generation. In my opinion, it will start in 2022, with or without SM.

 

[oden]

for me :

second gen :2007 -2013

2.5 gen: 2011-2013

third gen: 2014 -2020

3.5 gen: 2018-2020

forth gen 2021-2027

 

but i agree with all you say.....raise gen 4 raise!!

 

[lighterxx]

I wonder what gen this would be then in my belief 4th gen started around 2015, had long ass trasition period, and now properly in 4th gen

Its interesting tho, i wonder how future kpop fans would discuss this shift lol

[satoori]

6 hours ago, lilian wiccan said:

for me :

second gen :2007 -2013

2.5 gen: 2011-2013

third gen: 2014 -2020

3.5 gen: 2018-2020

forth gen 2021-2027

 

but i agree with all you say.....raise gen 4 raise!!

 

tvxq/ss501/suju/big bang as 1st gen AND bts/ladies code as 2nd gen...not one i agree with, but definitely a interesting opinion ^^

 

4 hours ago, lighterxx said:

I wonder what gen this would be then in my belief 4th gen started around 2015, had long ass trasition period, and now properly in 4th gen

Its interesting tho, i wonder how future kpop fans would discuss this shift lol

For me, right now we're in the last year of 4th gen.

 

i agree it's interesting! from what i've observed, usually there end up being a general consensus eventually. Sometimes it takes a few years after to finally see the bigger picture. I say around 2024 some people will realize putting 2018-2020 as the 4th gen was rushing...but you'll also have some people already starting to claim the 5th gen haha (ifans in general always seem to be in a rush to jump to the next gen XD)

But also korea themselves (it's their industry) will also start to discuss things. (for example: the pann article i posted above)

[Usagi.]

On 08/01/2021 at 7:28 AM, Green Tea Is Green said:

Can't wait for BH ngg debut this year