Predict - Song of the Year 2020

[satoori]

SOTY

Melon : ?
MAMA : ?
Golden Disk Awards (GDA) : ?
Seoul Music Awards (SMA) : ?

 

 

Notes:

Spoiler

**Songs released last year in 2019: Meteor (November), Blueming (November),  Late Night (November), and Psycho (December)**

Base on previous years criteria:

MAMA
Criteria: 20% fan votes + 40% judge panel + 30% digital + 10% physical
Release date: November 1, 2019 to October 23, 2020

Melon
Criteria: 60% stream + 20% Judges + 20% Voting
Release date: December 1, 2019 to November 29, 2020

GDA
Criteria: 70% digital sales + 30% judge panel (Sales gathered until December.)
Release date: October 2019 and October 2020 

 

Traditionally only one Daesang, but last year SMA randomly split it between album and digital release, so...
SMA
Citeria: 40% judge panel + 30% digital sales + 30% fan votes 
Release date: January 2020 to December 2020

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by satoori

[satoori]

Melon : Any Song
MAMA : Eight...or BTS? (with the help of physical and fan vote)
Golden Disk Awards (GDA) : Any Song
Seoul Music Awards (SMA) : Any Song

Edited October 17, 2020 by satoori
added.

[satoori]

fyi - Excluding "other"...the songs listed in the poll are doing the best on Gaon idex currently. Listed in order with 'Any song' doing the best. Also remember Melon has its own data.

Anything is possible. At the end of the day, these award shows do what they want with that judge panel percentage. I can see a few giving it to a idol group instead of Zico.

Edited October 17, 2020 by satoori

[Jaejoong01]

Melon: Zico or IU&Suga

MAMA: probably BTS

GDA: Zico or IU&Suga

SMA: Zico or Red Velvet

I could also see Dynamite winning all of the SOTY awards because of impact. 

Edited October 17, 2020 by Jaejoong01

[Belkiss]

where is dynamite 

[satoori]

6 minutes ago, Belkiss said:

where is dynamite 

it's included in other^^ "etc."

i agree it's doing very well for a song released late in the year. if dynamite wins i will be surprised tbh.  it's rare for a song after May to win. not enough data compared to the others who have all year to do well. but anything is possible!!

[eli]

kick it

[Drama Drama Drama]

Melon : Any Song or Eight
MAMA : Psycho if SM artists return to Mnet
Golden Disk Awards (GDA) : Any Song or Dynamite if it's included
Seoul Music Awards (SMA) : Psycho bc SMA always is SM biased

[hynapia]

MMA: Anysong or Psycho

MAMA: Psycho or Nonstop/Dolphin

Actually surprised nobody mentioned Nonstop or Dolphin since they're the biggest gg hits this year.

Edited October 17, 2020 by hynapia

[satoori]

38 minutes ago, hynapia said:

MMA: Anysong or Psycho

MAMA: Psycho or Nonstop/Dolphin

Actually surprised nobody mentioned Nonstop or Dolphin since they're the biggest gg hits this year.

i agree omg is one of the biggest gg hits

but not the biggest.

also there are other idols doing well. with better physicals and more fans [votes].

[satoori]

-Zico is currently enlisted. He will not be able to attend awards shows in person.  That could increase chances for other artists.

 

-I lowkey have a feeling SMA might go back to doing just one Daesang again this year.

 

-About Dynamite: It's a hit. No one can deny that. However the timing of the release is the issue. We already know Bts is most likely winning Album of the year. Before Dynamite i was very uncertain about Artist of the year tho. But now i'm 90% sure they will win Artist of the year due to Dynamite impact. Also i expect the new album coming in Nov to help too. Imagine if they can get another BB Hot 100. 

 

[Yknocker]

Dynamite for all awards

 

Only Eight stood a chance but no one talks about Eight now

[Ghosty]

I'm surprised no one has at least mentioned Mamamoo's Hip as a contender. I don't think they're going to win SOTY or anything, but the longevity is crazy, tbh.

[Drama Drama Drama]

14 minutes ago, Ghosty said:

I'm surprised no one has at least mentioned Mamamoo's Hip as a contender. I don't think they're going to win SOTY or anything, but the longevity is crazy, tbh.

It's more possible Hwasa winning best female solo award for Maria

[satoori]

46 minutes ago, Yknocker said:

Only Eight stood a chance but no one talks about Eight now

eight is actually still doing very well on the charts. since iu isn't releasing a new album anytime soon her fans and the public who love her continue to listen to her song.

 

 

38 minutes ago, Ghosty said:

I'm surprised no one has at least mentioned Mamamoo's Hip as a contender. I don't think they're going to win SOTY or anything, but the longevity is crazy, tbh.

i agree hip longevity is really good!

but as you said the chances of them winning is low. e.g. ON and Nonstop have surpassed it on Gaon chart index. Also i believe HYLT did too, not sure.

Edited October 17, 2020 by satoori

[hynapia]

13 hours ago, satoori said:

i agree omg is one of the biggest gg hits

but not the biggest.

also there are other idols doing well. with better physicals and more fans [votes].

which would be the biggest gg hit then? HYLT? Because no other gg songs this year come close so far.

I mean, Nonstop is still charting  top 25ish on melon and Dolphin is probably even a bigger hit, still charting at 12-13, only one spot below HYTL and it was released a couple months before. Nonstop is also the 2020 idol group song with most points so far on Gaon, only surpassed by 2019 songs like Psycho and BWL.

I still think Psycho is probably gonna win in MAMA since it was released in late december and it has the most digital points in general but OMG is a big candidate imo. Dynamite is also getting there but idk if a song completely in English can win.

Edited October 18, 2020 by hynapia

[abra]

I think Dynamite is winning at least one SotY. 

[hynapia]

12 hours ago, Ghosty said:

I'm surprised no one has at least mentioned Mamamoo's Hip as a contender. I don't think they're going to win SOTY or anything, but the longevity is crazy, tbh.

I was about to say this too. Hip was released in mid november last year so it technically counts. It's basically the biggest 2019 gg hit after Psycho but nobody is mentioning it. But then again, people aren't even mentioning Nonstop and it has the biggest digital points for an idol group release this year.

[Poised]

Maybe Psycho

[satoori]

3 hours ago, hynapia said:

which would be the biggest gg hit then? HYLT? Because no other gg songs this year come close so far.

I mean, Nonstop is still charting  top 25ish on melon and Dolphin is probably even a bigger hit, still charting at 12-13, only one spot below HYTL and it was released a couple months before. Nonstop is also the 2020 idol group song with most points so far on Gaon, only surpassed by 2019 songs like Psycho and BWL.

I still think Psycho is probably gonna win in MAMA since it was released in late december and it has the most digital points in general but OMG is a big candidate imo. Dynamite is also getting there but idk if a song completely in English can win.

seems there's some sort of miscommunication(?)

my comment:

i agree omg is one of the biggest gg hits --> agrees with you about omg

but not the biggest. --> i'm not specific for a reason. omg is not the biggest artists hit.

also there are other idols doing well. with better physicals and more fans [votes]. --> other idols are doing well, even if they haven't surpassed omg on gaon. 

 

 

plus only looking at gaon data at the end of the day has nothing to do with melon chart data.  

conclusion, yes omg is probably going to be nominated for some soty, but the chances of them winning, i'm uncertain.

Edited October 18, 2020 by satoori

[satoori]

3 hours ago, hynapia said:

I was about to say this too. Hip was released in mid november last year so it technically counts. It's basically the biggest 2019 gg hit after Psycho but nobody is mentioning it. But then again, people aren't even mentioning Nonstop and it has the biggest digital points for an idol group release this year.

 

 

 

basically on and nonstop has surpassed hip. plus there's still psycho doing well too.

hip probably has an even less chance of soty then nonstop

Edited October 18, 2020 by satoori

[satoori]

again we know nothing about all the factors melon look at...

but if we're soley looking at ULs:

 

[hynapia]

57 minutes ago, satoori said:

seems there's some sort of miscommunication(?)

my comment:

i agree omg is one of the biggest gg hits --> agrees with you about omg

but not the biggest. --> i'm not specific for a reason. omg is not the biggest artists hit.

also there are other idols doing well. with better physicals and more fans [votes]. --> other idols are doing well, even if they haven't surpassed omg on gaon. 

 

 

plus only looking at gaon data at the end of the day has nothing to do with melon chart data.  

conclusion, yes omg is probably going to be nominated for some soty, but the chances of them winning, i'm uncertain.

But I didn't say the biggest artist hit in general, I was talking about gg songs only.

I was just surprised that they weren't mentioned because usually the ggs that have the biggest hit of the year are mentioned, like people mentioned itzy and dalla dalla last year.

And I know gaon is different from melon but even then I also mentioned they're still charting high on melon. Right now only Blackpink's songs are higher than Nonstop/Dolphin but they were released way later.

Edited October 18, 2020 by hynapia

[satoori]

6 minutes ago, hynapia said:

But I didn't say the biggest artist hit, I was talking about gg songs only.

I was just surprised that they weren't mentioned because usually the ggs that have the biggest hit of the year are mentioned, like people mentioned itzy and dalla dalla last year.

Yes, and I agreed with you, with my first sentence. but then moved on to why they might not have been mentioned.

I wasn't tbh. Usually Big 3 GGs are mentioned. The kpop community sometimes forget smaller companies. Award shows don't always pay attention either sometimes...

If nonstop wins that would be great, of course! but right now I'm going to keep my expectations low. 

 

Edited October 18, 2020 by satoori