Base on the current MAMA line-up these are the nominees I've eliminated...

[satoori]

First set of tickets for MAMA go on sale now.  Any artist announced later will have the shorter end of the stick. Meaning possibly not as many fans in the audience. Seems like MAMA would prefer a audience of fans to support the main winners, right?

Current confirmed line - up:

GOT7
TWICE
MAMAMOO
MONSTA X
SEVENTEEN
IZ*ONE
Chungha
BTS (revealed today)

Nominees:

Best Female Artist
Jennie
Chungha
Taeyeon
Heize
Hwasa

Best Male Artist
Park Hyo Shin
Baekhyun
Mino
Taemin
Paul Kim

Best New Male Artist
AB6IX
ATEEZ
TXT
Kang Daniel
Kim Jae Hwan
X1

Best New Female Artist
ITZY (Pretty much guaranteed, +Twice and GOT7 fans will support)
Rocket Punch
BVNDIT
EVERGLOW
Jeon Somi
Cherry Bullet

Best Female Group
BLACKPINK
TWICE
Red Velvet
MAMAMOO
IZ*ONE
GFRIEND

Best Male Group
EXO
GOT7
NCT 127
MONSTA X
BTS
SEVENTEEN

Best Band Performance
DAY6
M.C the MAX
NELL
N.Flying
Jannabi
´
Best Hip Hop & Urban Music
Mino
EPIK HIGH
Woo Won Jae
Crush
Heize

Best Vocal Performance Group
AKMU
WINNER
DAVICHI
MAMAMOO
BOL4
BTOB

Best Vocal Performance Solo
Kim Jae Hwan
Park Bom
Ben
Jang Beom June
Chen
Taeyeon

Best OST
Gummy
Jannabi
Jang Beom June
Paul Kim
Ha Jin

Best Collaboration
Soyou, OVAN
Lee Sora Feat. Suga (I'm 90% sure will win)
Jang Hye Jin, Yun Min Soo
Changmo, Hash Swan, Ash Island, Kim Hyo Eun
Heize Feat. Giriboy

Best Dance Performance Female Group
(G)I-DLE
BLACKPINK
TWICE
Red Velvet
IZ*ONE
GFRIEND

Best Dance Performance Male Group
EXO
GOT7
NU'EST
MONSTA X
BTS
SEVENTEEN

Best Dance Performance Solo
Sunmi
Jennie
Chungha
Taemin
Hwasa

 

Updated list base on the comments below:

Spoiler

Best Female Artist
Jennie
Chungha
Taeyeon
Heize
Hwasa

Best Male Artist
Park Hyo Shin
Baekhyun ( i can see sm sending a vcr speech tho)
Mino
Taemin
Paul Kim

Best New Male Artist
AB6IX
ATEEZ
TXT
Kang Daniel
Kim Jae Hwan
X1

Best New Female Artist
ITZY (Pretty much guaranteed, +Twice and GOT7 fans will support)
Rocket Punch
BVNDIT
EVERGLOW
Jeon Somi
Cherry Bullet

Best Female Group
BLACKPINK
TWICE
Red Velvet
MAMAMOO
IZ*ONE
GFRIEND

Best Male Group
EXO
GOT7
NCT 127
MONSTA X
BTS
SEVENTEEN

Best Band Performance
DAY6
M.C the MAX
NELL
N.Flying
Jannabi
´
Best Hip Hop & Urban Music
Mino
EPIK HIGH
Woo Won Jae
Crush
Heize

Best Vocal Performance Group
AKMU
WINNER
DAVICHI
MAMAMOO
BOL4
BTOB

Best Vocal Performance Solo
Kim Jae Hwan
Park Bom
Ben
Jang Beom June
Chen (i can see sm sending a vcr speech)
Taeyeon

Best OST
Gummy
Jannabi
Jang Beom June
Paul Kim
Ha Jin

Best Collaboration
Soyou, OVAN
Lee Sora Feat. Suga (I'm 90% sure will win)
Jang Hye Jin, Yun Min Soo
Changmo, Hash Swan, Ash Island, Kim Hyo Eun
Heize Feat. Giriboy

Best Dance Performance Female Group
(G)I-DLE
BLACKPINK
TWICE
Red Velvet
IZ*ONE
GFRIEND

Best Dance Performance Male Group
EXO
GOT7
NU'EST
MONSTA X
BTS
SEVENTEEN

Best Dance Performance Solo
Sunmi
Jennie
Chungha
Taemin
Hwasa

 

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by satoori

[Nofave]

lol mama so transparent. the second someone isnt going you know they wont win 

[satoori]

14 minutes ago, Nofave said:

lol mama so transparent. the second someone isnt going you know they wont win 

this is not the final line up yet...but yes attendance is important to mama...tho not always..

[tamarind]

27 minutes ago, Nofave said:

lol mama so transparent. the second someone isnt going you know they wont win 

iu didnt attend but still won

[freya]

34 minutes ago, tamarind said:

iu didnt attend but still won

IU is an anomaly though. Generally speaking attendance tends to align with the awards being given out. Just how MAMA decides to divide them up along the attendees is probably the only trace of mystery here.

I'm especially curious about the Best Male Dance category because it could go to any of the attending nominees with the others being given awards like "best special performance" or "new worldwide artist" or any number of arbitrary awards instead.

[adda]

Best Male Artist
Park Hyo Shin
Baekhyun
Mino
Taemin
Paul Kim

Best Vocal Performance Solo
Kim Jae Hwan
Park Bom
Ben
Jang Beom June
Chen
Taeyeon

you can cat these artists too, since they will not attend.  MAMA wont give them awards even if they deserve. 

Edited October 31, 2019 by adda

[satoori]

39 minutes ago, freya said:

 

I'm especially curious about the Best Male Dance category because it could go to any of the attending nominees with the others being given awards like "best special performance" or "new worldwide artist" or any number of arbitrary awards instead.

That's a hard one..

MX have been pretty active in the west - MAMA do like catering to ifans

However  - Along with their Korean stuff, Got7 have released two singles in Japan this year which did relatively well...and 17 is also doing really good in Japan. Their the top 3rd gen group in Japan after Bts and Twice base on sales.

17 is the most successful in Korea out of the three too. Looking at everything 17 have achieved this year, they look sort of like BTS in 2016 (When they won their first Daesang)

I feel 17 will win Best Dace, since it's a main award. Got7 and MX will win special awards.

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by satoori

[satoori]

6 minutes ago, adda said:

Best Male Artist
Park Hyo Shin
Baekhyun
Mino
Taemin
Paul Kim

Best Vocal Performance Solo
Kim Jae Hwan
Park Bom
Ben
Jang Beom June
Chen
Taeyeon

you can cat these artists too, since they are not attending

Are they busy? or do you feel SM will skip this year?

[adda]

14 minutes ago, satoori said:

Are they busy? or do you feel SM will skip this year?

they are always busy, but that s not the reason I think they will not attend. 

I said that because SM has pulled out all their artists from Mnet show.  No SM artist promoted on MCountdown this year. ( neither last year they didnt promote there, starting with 2nd half) From aug. 2018, no SM group had appear on any Mnet related events.

I suppose their is a beef between Mnet and SM , so I dont think SM will send their artists. 

Edited October 31, 2019 by adda

[satoori]

7 minutes ago, adda said:

they are always busy, but that s not the reason I think they will not attend. 

I said that because SM has pulled out all their artists from Mnet show.  No SM artist promoted on MCountdown this year. ( neither last year they didnt promote there, starting with 2nd half) From aug. 2018, no SM group had appear on any Mnet related events.

I suppose their is a beef between Mnet and SM , so I dont think SM will send their artists. 

ok, didn't realize that

since there's beef,  i guess there's no chance for a vcr acceptance speech either...

[Fly_Higher]

I would not cross out everyone else for the 'Vocal Performance Group' yet. MAMAMOO is obviously the favourite now with their attendance but Bolbbalgan4 and Davichi actually attended MAMA in the past. 

Last year they actually handed iKon the 'Vocal Performance Group' award, so even though it's extremely unlikely that YG+SM acts will win awards, it's not totally impossible.

1 hour ago, freya said:

I'm especially curious about the Best Male Dance category because it could go to any of the attending nominees with the others being given awards like "best special performance" or "new worldwide artist" or any number of arbitrary awards instead.

Seventeen has the award in bag unless they win 'Best Male Group' this year over BTS. They didn't hand it to GOT7 in any of the last few years so it's hard to imagine that they will hand it to G7/MX when 17 had such a huge boost in physicals this year.

Edited October 31, 2019 by Fly_Higher

[satoori]

1 minute ago, Fly_Higher said:

I would not cross out everyone else for the 'Vocal Performance Group' yet. MAMAMOO is obviously the favourite now with their attendance but Bolbbalgan4 actually attended MAMA in the past. 

Last year they actually handed iKon the 'Vocal Performance Group' award, so even though it's extremely unlikely that YG+SM acts will win awards, it's not totally impossible.

 

yea i know they've attended in the past. do you by chance remember when bolb4 was announced for the lineup last year?

ikon situation was different last year...they were soty for most award shows...now there's nothing that makes them standout

 

 

[Fly_Higher]

Just now, satoori said:

yea i know they've attended in the past. do you by chance remember when bolb4 was announced for the lineup last year?

ikon situation was different last year...they were soty for most award shows...now there's nothing that makes them standout

I checked and Bol4 wasn't among the first three waves of announcements (it was 2017, not last year). However, other nominees weren't invited that year so it's slightly different. Anyways, I mentioned that coz MAMAMOO is also nominated for 'Best Female Group' so it's not like they could only win 'Vocal Performance Group' while attending. It's just that we know it's more likely that they will win the 'Vocal Performance'  one.

True, but what I meant is it's actually not impossible for YG/SM acts to win a 'less significant' award if they performed really well that year, even though it's still very unlikely to happen.

[satoori]

16 minutes ago, Fly_Higher said:

I checked and Bol4 wasn't among the first three waves of announcements (it was 2017, not last year). However, other nominees weren't invited that year so it's slightly different. Anyways, I mentioned that coz MAMAMOO is also nominated for 'Best Female Group' so it's not like they could only win 'Vocal Performance Group' while attending. It's just that we know it's more likely that they will win the 'Vocal Performance'  one.

True, but what I meant is it's actually not impossible for YG/SM acts to win a 'less significant' award if they performed really well that year, even though it's still very unlikely to happen.

Mamamoo isn't getting 'best female group' from Twice. so basically 'best vocal performance' is their best chance at winning one of the main awards...not including one hwasa herself might get

 

of course, they can win special awards. this thread is about the main awards tho.

[Belkiss]

Will  mx attend?

[JunChanHun]

Seem like the most likely outcome

[Bibbidi-Bobbidi-Boo]

6 hours ago, tamarind said:

iu didnt attend but still won

I feel like MAMA can't avoid her. If they don't give her an award the public will call them out.

[sequinze]

3 hours ago, Belkiss said:

Will  mx attend?

[Keita]

Should eliminate all YG and SM acts already