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"A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet" posted by Wired


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There has been a lot of speculation about Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Terrorism, hijacking, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN; it’s almost disturbing. I tend to look for a simpler explanation, and I find it with the 13,000-foot runway at Pulau Langkawi.

 

We know the story of MH370: A loaded Boeing 777 departs at midnight from Kuala Lampur, headed to Beijing. A hot night. A heavy aircraft. About an hour out, across the gulf toward Vietnam, the plane goes dark, meaning the transponder and secondary radar tracking go off. Two days later we hear reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar, meaning the plane is tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of Malacca.

 

The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah1 was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.

 

Take a look at this airport on Google Earth. The pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make an immediate turn to the closest, safest airport.

 

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and searched for airports in proximity to the track toward the southwest.

 

For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.

 

There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be as fast and furious, and there may or may not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility, given the timeline, that there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires, it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes, this happens with underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long-run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. Once going, a tire fire would produce horrific, incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter, but this will last only a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one in my flight bag, and I still carry one in my briefcase when I fly.)

 

What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless.

 

Ongoing speculation of a hijacking and/or murder-suicide and that there was a flight engineer on board does not sway me in favor of foul play until I am presented with evidence of foul play.

 

We know there was a last voice transmission that, from a pilot’s point of view, was entirely normal. “Good night†is customary on a hand-off to a new air traffic control. The “good night†also strongly indicates to me that all was OK on the flight deck. Remember, there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress. A hijack code or even transponder code off by one digit would alert ATC that something was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike always is an option. Even three short clicks would raise an alert. So I conclude that at the point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the pilots.

 

But things could have been in the process of going wrong, unknown to the pilots.

 

Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy, as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electrical problem or an electrical fire than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots probably were not aware ACARS was not transmitting.

 

As for the reports of altitude fluctuations, given that this was not transponder-generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles, the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable. But let’s accept for a minute that the pilot may have ascended to 45,000 feet in a last-ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen. That is an acceptable scenario. At 45,000 feet, it would be tough to keep this aircraft stable, as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been generated by a stall, followed by a recovery at 25,000 feet. The pilot may even have been diving to extinguish flames.

 

But going to 45,000 feet in a hijack scenario doesn’t make any good sense to me.

 

Regarding the additional flying time: On departing Kuala Lampur, Flight 370 would have had fuel for Beijing and an alternate destination, probably Shanghai, plus 45 minutes–say, 8 hours. Maybe more. He burned 20-25 percent in the first hour with takeoff and the climb to cruise. So when the turn was made toward Langkawi, he would have had six hours or more hours worth of fuel. This correlates nicely with the Inmarsat data pings being received until fuel exhaustion.

 

The now known continued flight until time to fuel exhaustion only confirms to me that the crew was incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean.

 

There is no point speculating further until more evidence surfaces, but in the meantime it serves no purpose to malign pilots who well may have been in a struggle to save this aircraft from a fire or other serious mechanical issue. Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. There is no doubt in my mind. That’s the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijacking would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It probably would have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided where they were taking it.

 

Surprisingly, none of the reporters, officials, or other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot’s viewpoint: If something went wrong, where would he go? Thanks to Google Earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times.

 

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well-remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed, I believe, in Columbus, Ohio in the 1980s. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn’t instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually, but lost 30-odd souls. The 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. They simply ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what? The transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.

 

Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. Two plus two equals four. For me, that is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction. Smart pilot. He just didn’t have the time.

 

Chris Goodfellow has 20 years experience as a Canadian Class-1 instrumented-rated pilot for multi-engine planes. His theory on what happened to MH370 first appeared on Google+. We’ve copyedited it with his permission.

TLDR: Experienced pilot gives his theory of what happened. Electrical fire on board which caused loss of transponders and communications, and caused the pilot to change direction to the nearest airport. He gives explanations to backup his theory, and accounts for the strange updates that have developed since.

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If the pilot landed on a different airport, the airport would know and get into contact with the Malaysian officials though his story about the fire does sound the most convincing of all theories I've heard.

where the plane at tho

"What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless."

 

"...the crew was incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean."

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Most plausible theory yet,  They really should make a transponder and communications that is totally separate and isolated from the rest of the electrical. Is crazy to think that like he says that process is to intentionally disconnect  yourself and all communications to try to isolate the bad circuit.  The only thing is  i not really sure about the reports of it flying that long if there was a electrical fire. If the fire was strong enough to overcome the passengers then it probably shouldn't of taken that 6 hours to seriously damage the plane, Plus the fact that it does not take to long to send a distress signal.

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This theory is better than all the others I've heard, but it saddens me...

I wanted the plane to appear safe in some island, but every day that passes my hopes are just lost. I feel so bad for the families of the passengers. I know what it's like to lose a close loved one, and I just pray for them to have strength. There were fathers, mothers, siblings, sons, daughters, etc. in that plane.  :._.: If they're dead (yes, I still have a 1% of hope that they're alive somewhere), I hope that it happened too suddenly for them to suffer or fear anything. 

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Makes sense up until there is still a plane missing. So unless it landed somewhere completely outside of civilization, there's still a big piece of the puzzle left unsolved.

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That theory is by a pilot who just doesn't want to try to believe that another pilot possibly would deliberately kill those they were entrusted to safely fly from point to another. A lot of evidence actually counters his theory.

 

Goodfellow's account is emotionally compelling, and it is based on some of the most important facts that have been established so far," writes Jeff Wise in Slate. "And it is simple - to a fault."

 

"While it's true that MH370 did turn toward Langkawi and wound up overflying it, whoever was at the controls continued to maneuver after that point as well, turning sharply right at VAMPI waypoint, then left again at GIVAL," he says. "Such vigorous navigating would have been impossible for unconscious men."

 

And:

Goodfellow's theory fails further when one remembers the electronic ping detected by the Inmarsat satellite at 8:11 on the morning of March 8. According to analysis provided by the Malaysian and United States governments, the pings narrowed the location of MH370 at that moment to one of two arcs, one in Central Asia and the other in the southern Indian Ocean. As MH370 flew from its original course toward Langkawi, it was headed toward neither. Without human intervention - which would go against Goodfellow's theory - it simply could not have reached the position we know it attained at 8:11 a.m.

 

There still should have been a distress call, Greg Feith, a former National Transportation Safety Board crash investigator, told NBC News.

 

"Typically, with an electrical fire, you'll have smoke before you have fire," he said. "You can do some troubleshooting. And if the systems are still up and running, you can get off a mayday call" and pilots can put on an oxygen mask, Feith said.

Nine hours after its first article on the subject Business Insider ran a follow-up, with reaction from pilots.

 

Michael G Fortune, a retired pilot who flew 777-200ERs like the Malaysia plane, said it was unlikely the crew would have shut off the transponders to deal with the fire.

 

"The checklist I utilized for smoke and fumes in the B-777-200ER does not specifically address the transponder being turned off," he said.

 

Another 777 pilot told the website that putting on oxygen masks would have been the first priority for the crew, preventing them from being incapacitated.

As long as there is no definitive word about the fate of MH370, theories - from respected experts and amateurs relying on a hunch and a little help from Google Earth - will continue to bounce around the internet.

Some will catch fire and go viral, until they are debunked or overtaken by new facts.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-26640114

 

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I've always thought the pilot committed suicide and didn't want people to find out which is why he navigated suspiciously to make it look like a hijacking. When going up to 45,000ft he would wear his oxygen mask and kill the passengers slowly by hypoxia. They would have thought they were just feeling drowsy. Maybe he wanted to make a political statement, or maybe he wanted to go to a deserted island to start a new life? The only thing that stops me from thinking this is likely is that he seemed like a genuine friendly bloke who loved his life. I think he managed to sink the plane in the deepest part of the Indian Ocean. 

 

Well I do hope it was just a fire but it's very rare for a 777 to fail like that hmm.

 

Oh shit, just turned on the news and found out Australia found some debri. 

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Most plausible theory yet,  They really should make a transponder and communications that is totally separate and isolated from the rest of the electrical. Is crazy to think that like he says that process is to intentionally disconnect  yourself and all communications to try to isolate the bad circuit.  The only thing is  i not really sure about the reports of it flying that long if there was a electrical fire. If the fire was strong enough to overcome the passengers then it probably shouldn't of taken that 6 hours to seriously damage the plane, Plus the fact that it does not take to long to send a distress signal.

you forget that fire makes smoke

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