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This cute concept in K-pop is about to get bigger.


chaiushhy

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And K-pop as a whole will probably trend down from here.

 

Hear me out. I am not saying that K-pop will become irrelevant anytime soon, but I believe it has reached a point that we have reached the best of Kpop won't get any significantly better than where we are now today.

 

One big reason for this is South Korean demographics and how it is following Japan as becoming an older population.

 

Looking at this population pyramid in 2007, the year when SNSD debuted.

 

https://populationpyramid.net/republic-of-korea/2007/

 

909a746f93cb8c02fa50700ef9ad129b.jpg

 

Here 20.1% of the male population (and roughly the same for females) is 15-39 years old. It is not a young population to begin with but it still a good demographic.

 

Fast forward to 2016

 

https://populationpyramid.net/republic-of-korea/2016/

 

9d115546213c4b782a2dc5ec09e350ae.jpg

 

The same demo has decreased to 17.8%. This is a decrease of 11.5% from just 9 years ago. Again female demo is roughly similar.

 

In addition, for 2016, when you look at the Uncle Fan demo (30-49 years old), it is 15.8% of the population. While the 10-29 demo is only 12.8% of the population. This is the reason why the cute concepts are so popular lately.

 

So will this trend go away? I do not think so. The birth rate is so low and the teens of today will be the uncle fans of tomorrow.

 

In 2021, the 10-29 demo will just be 11.6% of the population, and the 30-49 demo will be 14.8% of the population. So as a proportion, there will be a lot more older fans in the market in 5 years.

 

I may have all the age group cutoffs wrong, but the main point is, more people are getting older and tastes will change.

 

Japan has the same problem. J-pop was popular then but age caught up to them, and now their most popular act is AKB48.

 

But I believe the K-pop industry can learn from J-pop and find a way to stem this tide. We have seen a lot of foreign-born singers and celebrities that train and debut in SK. They can also tap the international market much earlier in their group's lifecycle. But as a domestic market, SK will influence what kind of music comes out of there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Japan has the same problem. J-pop was popular then but age caught up to them, and now their most popular act is AKB48.

 

 

No AKB/idol trends have faded these past yrs. They're somewhat relevant bc of media presence, occasional hits, fanbase size but their popularity peak was 2012. Also it's indie bands that are most popular and trending now. 

And the fresh concept trend will also move on when something else became big.  

Majority of kpop fanbase are young anyway so korean's age demo isn't going to impact them for like a good couple decades yrs lel 

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