GOP Debate Preview: Trump on Top, Cruz vs. Rubio, and Bush Bottoming Out

[internalizedhomophobia]

 

In tonight’s next riveting episode of The Hunger Games: Republican Edition, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, whose commanding lead in the national polls contrasts sharply with his highly-competitive Iowa caucus battle with Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), prepares to take on all comers. Meanwhile, Republican establishment favorites former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), Governor John Kasich (R-OH), Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) all flail; Rubio’s doing the best of the bunch, and he’s been more stagnant than expected.

 

So, what do all the candidates need to do tonight?

 

Donald Trump. Trump could do nothing tonight and win. He could also pull down his pants and proceed to drop an enormous bowel movement on the stage – call it a Trump Dump, the most magnificent, expensive, yuge dump you’ve ever seen – and rise ten points in the polls. Trump is as invulnerable as any candidate in recent memory. His support is not going to drop in any significant way, no matter what he does. Short of openly endorsing Hillary Clinton, Trump will continue to ride high.

 

Ted Cruz. Cruz will likely be targeted by Trump, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. Cruz has steadfastly refused to attack Trump, believing rightly that he is the alternative choice for many Trump voters; Cruz hopes that if he wins Iowa, Trump’s aura of invincibility will shatter, and Trump voters will begin to follow him. That won’t stop Trump from doubling down on past critiques of Cruz, calling himself the real victim at all points. Rubio will attack Cruz as soft on foreign policy, a Paul-like quasi-isolationist; Cruz will fire back by calling Rubio a Lindsey Graham-like interventionist, citing Libya and Syria as his evidence. He’ll also go after Rubio on immigration. Meanwhile, Paul will attack Cruz as an interventionist. Because Cruz can play both ends against the middle, he will likely emerge unscathed. These debates suit him.

 

Ben Carson. Of all the candidates, Carson has dropped most steeply. His support has bled directly to Cruz, who is picking up evangelical support in Iowa and nationwide. To right the ship, Carson would have to be an entirely different candidate: smooth on the issues, forceful in delivery and execution. Look for the slide to continue.

 

Marco Rubio. Rubio always does well in debate, but this is the first time he and Cruz will be going at each other. The irony is that Cruz isn’t Rubio’s true opponent – it’s Christie and Kasich, both of whom are looking to usurp Rubio’s mantle as the establishment favorite. That Rubio has to fight for that title this late in the game shows the latent weakness of his candidacy in this field. Rubio will likely chide Cruz for not getting things done in the Senate, but that’s a risky play given that Rubio has missed more time than Cruz in the Senate. Just as likely, Rubio turns to attacking Trump – after all, the establishment candidates always seem to do just that in an attempt to garner support from their own base.

 

Jeb Bush. Jeb’s toast. He’s run the least effective political advertising campaign in American history. He’s down in low single digits. He once ran at 22 percent nationally. Good night, Jeb. Turn out the lights.

 

John Kasich. Kasich’s sticking around, hoping against hope that both Christie and Rubio collapse. Tonight, he’s got to knock the knees out from one or the other or both. Touting his big government programs won’t do it. He can smack Rubio on experience, and he can smack Christie on his closeness to President Obama – that would be his smart angle. It’s unlikely he’ll take it. Instead, we will finally hear the answer to that long-asked question: was his father a mailman?

 

Chris Christie. Christie bounced down to the kiddie table and is now back up; he’s been touted as a sleeper pick in New Hampshire. To make that stick, he’ll have to attack Marco Rubio. He’ll probably do so on experience, but he could do it on an interventionist foreign policy if he’s clever. Christie could also turn on Kasich, but he’s more likely to ignore him.

 

Carly Fiorina. Fiorina’s video eating dog food today isn’t a good moment for her; her candidacy has been on the rocks since her first main stage debate performance. Unable to capitalize on it, she’s been relegated to second-tier status, even though she really hasn’t done anything wrong. It’s unclear who her audience is at this point. She’ll try to clarify tonight. If she attacks Cruz, she’s trying to win his audience; if she attacks Rubio and Christie, she’s trying to go establishment. Either way, it’s probably a losing effort.

 

Rand Paul. Paul has made his own isolationism his distinguishing feature. That’s a huge mistake. His charm always lay in his unapologetic small government stance. It could still, but it’s late in the game and time grows short. Given that Cruz has stolen a lot of his support, he’ll probably attempt to attack Cruz, but that’s unlikely to win him points given that his differentiation from Cruz will again be on foreign policy.

 

Right now, it’s a fight for second nationally, but a fight for primacy in Iowa. The two targets will be Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Get ready.

 

source: Dailywire

[Joon]

I'll watch as I always do. I'll watch Trump talk a lot but say nothing at all, I'll watch Cruz continue to make asinine statements with little factual basis, and Carson...oh, he was on stage? And then I will watch the stupid republicans everywhere declare that somehow one of these three won the debate.

 

At least it's amusing, but I always wondering if I am watching the same debate.

[BubbleGumPop]

BERNIE 2016

[internalizedhomophobia]

I'll watch as I always do. I'll watch Trump talk a lot but say nothing at all, I'll watch Cruz continue to make asinine statements with little factual basis, and Carson...oh, he was on stage? And then I will watch the stupid republicans everywhere declare that somehow one of these three won the debate.

 

At least it's amusing, but I always wondering if I am watching the same debate.

I got bored after the second debate, but I'll continue watching them because I have my eye on Rand. They always have to pit them against each other which takes up a lot of valuable time where they could actually talk about the issues. I didn't see this in the Dem debate...