Truth_hurts 1,785 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Apparently there might be another one like that. California drought: El Niño weather event is biggest since 1997, may trigger soaking winter storms As Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to warm and trade winds shift, federal scientists now say that the El Niño weather event that's emerging could be one of the strongest on record. With California desperate for relief from its punishing four-year drought, the trend is significantly increasing the chances that storms will drench the state this winter, according to a new report released by federal scientists Thursday. And scientists say the conditions are lining up in ways not seen since the winter of 1997-98, when downpours filled reservoirs and sent rivers raging during the last major El Niño. The deck of a Pacifica home hangs precariously over an eroding bluff on Feb. 23, 1998. The deck of a Pacifica home hangs precariously over an eroding bluff on Feb. 23, 1998. (Robin Weiner/Associated Press) "That's good news for California," said Mike Halpert, deputy director for NOAA's climate prediction center in College Park, Maryland. "There are obviously no guarantees, but above-normal rainfall is becoming more likely." The chances are now "greater than 90 percent" that El Niño conditions that began in March will remain through this winter, according to the monthly El Niño report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That's up from 85 percent last month and 50 percent from four months ago. "We are on the right path now. We want to see it continue to strengthen and build -- and certainly to not weaken any time before the new year," said California's state climatologist, Michael Anderson, who is with the state Department of Water Resources. Advertisement El Niño is a disruption in the weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean, when the ocean's surface warms more than normal. Those warm waters release heat, changing wind directions and the jet stream. Strong El Niños, which occur when the Pacific Ocean is the warmest, have historically been linked to wet weather in California and South America -- and droughts in Australia and Asia. As El Niño conditions have continued to grow this year, Peru in recent weeks declared an El Niño emergency, warning of flooding that could begin there this summer. Citigroup and the United Nations have issued warnings about potential price spikes in wheat and other food staples that would result from reduced harvests in Australia and other countries. To be sure, California's next rainy season won't start in earnest for five more months. And many of those will be hot summer months with a high fire risk because the worst drought since California became a state in 1850 has left grasslands and forests bone dry. Scientists also caution that promising El Niños have fizzled out in the past -- most recently last year. But with each passing month, many scientists now say, this year is looking more and more like 1997. That year, an ocean area that scientists call the "3.4 region" along the equator near South America that is considered a key indicator of El Niño trends was 1 degree Fahrenheit warmer than normal from April to June. Over the same months this year, the water there was 1.6 degrees higher than average. San Francisco received 47 inches of rain the winter of 1997-98, double its historic average and the most since 1862. At the peak in the winter of 1997, the water along the equator was 4.1 degrees above average. And now supercomputers at NOAA, NASA and other world-leading scientific institutions are projecting the temperatures in that ocean region by November will hit close to that -- 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit -- the warmest since 1997. John Lewis remembers that soaking winter of 1997-98. The owner of Commercial Gutter in Fremont was so swamped with calls from people needing gutter repairs during the relentless downpours that he had a six-month waiting list. "It was a frenzy," he said. "My guys were working seven days a week, 10 to 12 hours a day. I had to turn people away." Lewis, who also sells rain barrels and water storage tanks, said some homeowners are getting their gutters repaired now and mentioning the El Niño reports. But could one soaking winter end California's drought in a year? It's possible if the state receives 150 percent or more above average rainfall, filling Shasta, Oroville and the state's other largest reservoirs, said Anderson, the state's climatologist. "The potential for runoff in the watersheds is larger than the storage capacity of the reservoirs," he said. http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_28458401/california-drought-el-nino-weather-event-is-biggest?source=infinite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
...... 3,962 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 my brother did a science fair presentation on the last big El Nino (i think)... when he was like, 12-13...damn it was so long ago... I remember it on the news a lot, but i was young so i didn't understand it. It was the late 90's. This one though, is apparently has a bit of a silver lining... because it will be good for Cali draught. Not sure if the dangers are worth it... but i suppose at this point...flooding rains are better than no rains. Sucks for the other states that tend to get negatively affecte though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Truth_hurts 1,785 Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 my brother did a science fair presentation on the last big El Nino (i think)... when he was like, 12-13...damn it was so long ago... I remember it on the news a lot, but i was young so i didn't understand it. It was the late 90's. This one though, is apparently has a bit of a silver lining... because it will be good for Cali draught. Not sure if the dangers are worth it... but i suppose at this point...flooding rains are better than no rains. Sucks for the other states that tend to get negatively affecte though. True we need the rain but I hope there's not another El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocumentaLy 6,033 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 my brother did a science fair presentation on the last big El Nino (i think)... when he was like, 12-13...damn it was so long ago... I remember it on the news a lot, but i was young so i didn't understand it. It was the late 90's. This one though, is apparently has a bit of a silver lining... because it will be good for Cali draught. Not sure if the dangers are worth it... but i suppose at this point...flooding rains are better than no rains. Sucks for the other states that tend to get negatively affecte though. Sis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krystalized 1,843 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I barely remember the last niño but i hope this one is not strong. U know, some families lost their home coz of the flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
...... 3,962 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Sis? lol apparently in an alternate reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocumentaLy 6,033 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 lol apparently in an alternate reality LOL, but yeah these projects really were a thing around that time. It was on the news A LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I came here thinking you were talking about the nu-metal band El Niño.. I was confused for a moment. xD And also hope everyone stays safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakurahanabira 6,634 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 No. I didn't pay attention to those kinds of things at all when I was a child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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