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calico cat team

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Posts posted by calico cat team

  1. No I don’t think we have enough steam for that. I think it will be around 35-40mil, which is freaking unbelievable. I’m ecstatic.

    we have a little over 8 hours to amass at least 14m views, and korea is just waking up plus most of america is up... i think it's gonna be close if nothing else

  2. bts decided to come back on my birthday and i'm honestly so excited for comeback season this is the best way to start off my 21st year of living i'm so hype for the views especially so expect me to be lurking a decent amount even though i only show up once every three months dfhgdhfg I LOVE BTS!!!!!!!

    • Like 1
  3. i'm gonna go ahead and say that i'm estimating dna is going to overtake TT and fantastic baby within the next two weeks based on the rate it's going compared to the rates of TT and FB. definitely before the end of the month. although this likely won't be exact, the math that shows this is here (all taken from kworb) :

     

    the formula is x + (a * b), where x is the current number of views, a is the current average daily views, and b is the hypothetical number of days it will take to reach our conclusion.

     

    DNA: 336,092,881 + (1,071,512 * 11) = 347,879,513

    FB: 346,457,786 + (113,495 * 11) = 347,706,231

    TT: 342,084,451 + (338,950 * 11) = 345,812,901

     

    this also means DNA will probably be the first MV to reach 350M so let me just say, damn. and this is all likely to happen before bts's comeback at the end of the month. i'm honestly in awe.

     

    (also, speaking of 350M: the estimated days for DNA hitting 350M are 13, while the days for FB are 31, and 24 for TT. feel free to plug in the numbers and see for yourself.)

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  4. i wonder if the views freezing actually has something to do with when the mvs are released? we started noticing a difference in how long the views were frozen about the same time the music charts changed, and everyone started releasing their mvs 12pm-6pm kst. since youtube's servers are located around the US (i think), 6pm kst is in the middle of the night, which means there's less strain on the servers and they're less likely to get overwhelmed and freeze (if the theory that they freeze because they're overwhelmed is true).

     

    something to think about :0

    • Like 2
  5. Does this also hold Kpop Japanese releases? Not that I think Twice will get any records with their's but if a group does in the future will it be recorded here?

    as far as i know, no. it might be worth it to start tracking jp releases separately if they become relevant enough to, though

  6. I wonder how DNA's release time will affect its viewcount for the first hours. BST, Spring Day and Not Today all released at 10 am US Central Time, while DNA is coming out at 4 am CST. US monthly YouTube views for Bangtan recently overtook Korean views so the release time might hurt the initial count as many US Armys won't be up yet. On the other hand, it's releasing at 6 pm KST which means more Korean streams, so it might not change much. Either way, I'm sure records will be broken :/

    i don't think it'll hurt too much! AIIYL was released at 6pm kst (4am cst, for reference obv) and, well, look at how high the views are. the views on the teaser are picking up right now now that korean armys are awake, for example, so i think korean armys will do a decent job until US armys wake up and start streaming ^^

    • Like 1
  7. By comparison, the Spring Day teaser got 3.3 million views in the first 24 hours and the mv ended up with 9.4 million. And this was before YouTube's new algorithm.

     

    I won't make a guess, but its clear that this is gonna be pretty big.

    based on the trajectory of the teaser so far, i think we're going to hit about 6-7m on the teaser in the first 24 hours. it could go higher, but because it's so short and isn't a full mv like serendipity, it's harder to say.

     

    this is what i came up with for their previous numbers (credit to sealien for the numbers!) if we calculate what the % increase for each of their last three mvs was when we compare the teaser vs mv views

     

    BST

    teaser: 1,373,942

    mv: 6,347,505

    %+: 21.6453867%

     

    SPRING DAY

    teaser: 3,376,859

    mv: 9,447,661

    %+: 35.7428045%

     

    NOT TODAY

    teaser: 2,310,751

    mv: 10,979,502

    %+: 21.0460456%

     

    so basically, teaser views / % = mv views

     

    going off of that, if my hunch is right and we hit, say, 6.5m and divide it by 26.1447456% (which is the mean / average of the three numbers), we get...

     

    24,861,592

     

    ilikeitplz.png

     

    of course, i could be wrong. there's a lot of factors that goes into what gets views and why, and i won't be able to make a more accurate calculation until the numbers roll in for the first twenty four hours on the DNA teaser. we also aren't factoring in the second to even (potential) third teaser, so there's a lot to take in.

     

    however, it is interesting to note that the percentage of AIIYL's views increase from teaser to mv are really close-- 3,486,497 / 26.1821949% = 13,316,290-- so it's pretty safe to say that we should be looking at that average number to get an idea of what we might be hitting here.

     

    despite the numbers, though, i'll admit i'm hesitant to say we'll hit that many views-- personally, i think we'll hit something more like 18m, based off of spring day's trajectory more than the average between the three. we shall see!

    • Like 4
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  8. DVOwLku.png

     

    Ko ko bop, 8 833 869 views. Power, 6 605 588. Receipts may vary since views were not frozen.

    thank you so much for this!!

     

    it's really interesting to see the difference in views. they both had the same steady increase and dropped off at about the same time, power just didn't get the same momentum. i thought power was a better song than kokobop (personal opinion) so i wonder if it's the mv that resulted in this, or what? either way tho thank you!!!!

    • Like 1
  9. EXO's 'Power' reached 6,605,588 views in the first 24 hours.

     

    If Serendipity is included for the list, Power sits at  #5. If we don't include Serendipity, Power is #4.

     

    edit: fixed the number since even though i captured it at 2:00 and took my time posting, the number was off. rip
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